Is the falling birth rate a danger for Italian universities?

 

Forecasts of the demographic future in Italy return a potential crisis framework. The resident population is decreasing: from 59.6 million to 1 January 2020 to 58 million in 2030, to 54.1 million in 2050 and to 47.6 million in 2070, ISTAT, the Italian Institute for statistics, reports.

The trend alarmed two ISTAT researchers (Massimo Almenise and Federico Benassi), who focused on this trend in relation to the forecast of the student population in HEIs over the next two decades. The report of the two researchers is somewhat alarming, though a number of remedies are suggested, too.

ISTAT says the 19-25 years old cohort of young people will shrink by 16% in 20 years time. Almenise and Benassi studied the capacity of most Italian HEIs to attract fresh students from the region where they operate, as well as from neighbouring regions. One of the results is that, given Southern regions decreasing population, coupled to Southern universities difficulties in recruiting from those regions, Southern Universities will suffer (a lot) of a marked fall in student population. Central and Northern will suffer as well, though to a comparably lesser extent than the South’s.

“In 20 years, the number of mega Universities (those [….]  with over 40 thousand enrolled) will increase from 12 to 7, large universities (from 40 thousand to 20 thousand enrolled) from 20 to 14, and consequently will increase the number of medium (from 20 to 10 thousand enrolled) and small universities (less than 10 thousand) respectively from 17 to 24, and from 29 to 33.”

The two researchers suggest two potential solutions: first, increase the percentage of high-school students that enrol to a university: “For years there have been talks of implementing policies that raise the percentage of Italian population with a level of tertiary education bringing it to European levels, but also these policies, seem not to be enough to stop the bleeding of students of the universities of Southern Italy”.

Second, increase “significantly” the quota of international students.

In 2022, as Monsuni reported, the average rate of international students enrolled in the Italian academic system is around 5%, far beyond the 16% decreased in young population foreseen by ISTAT.

 

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